It is surprising to me that my first substantive article is in defense of President-elect Trump (I still find that phrase hard to believe). However, the reaction to his telephone call last week with Taiwan's President Tsai-Ing Wen has been, shall we say, a bit overstated.
First, let me state that I support the "One China" policy, if for no other reason than it has helped keep the peace for 40 years and all parties seem to be, well, OK with it. It isn't perfect, but too many things in IR aren't perfect. Taiwan is, in effect, an independent nation. But lack of representation at the United Nations and the Olympics is a small price to pay for freedom from Beijing. On the other hand, the PRC gets to fixate on their "renegade province" and stoke the domestic fires of nationalism, all while effecting an unprecedented era of growth and development.
China's development is now at a point that can best be described as comparable to an awkward teen. They're transitioning from childhood, where tantrums and special rules to maturity, where they need to understand their place in the world (a very important place, to be sure) and the responsibilities that go with it. Society understands when a child who doesn't get his way pouts and screams, but it is unseemly for an adult. China needs to accept that world leadership comes with perks, but also obligations to sit on your hands and accept things that you'd make you burn inside. Things like an American politician taking a call with Taipei. (To say nothing about refraining from building islands in the middle of the ocean, but that's another story.)
But whatever reaction may come from Beijing, it is at present nothing compared to the hand-wringing by large parts the U.S. foreign policy chattering classes. They are expressing great consternation about this phone call, and how it jeopardizes 40 years of practice and precedent. I will simply point out that these are the same commentators that applauded the Obama administrations "bold" action in overturning 40 years of precedent with Iran and 60 years of Cuban policy.
In Trumps defense, we're talking about a phone call. Yes, it is of tremendous symbolic value - especially in China where symbolism occasionally seems more important than actual action. But it is just that - symbolic. If the Chinese leadership is so insecure or so unhinged that they will allow this call to actually have a significant deleterious effect on U.S.-Sino relations, then those relations were already doomed to fall prey to some innocuous act. If they can be "adults" about it, then perhaps we're moving into the next phase of East Asian diplomacy, where there are fewer special rules and caveats.
Trumps call was the result of either 1) an ignorance of Chinese policy or 2) a premeditated decision to take a confrontational stand on an issue of significance to Beijing. Option 1 encapsulates everything I worried about when pondering a Trump administration. Option 2 is, at least, part of a larger strategic decision to place our relationship with China on a different level. That is a decision that is not without merit, and the potential benefits and risks of a new approach to the PRC is probably a discussion that we should have. Contrast that with Obama's policies on Iran and China, neither of which can be seen as anything other than an effort to forge a "legacy." (I will discuss both these policies more in future articles as the Obama years come, thankfully, to an end.) I will welcome a serious discussion of China policy in the coming years, since discussions about the direction of foreign policy has been something the outgoing administration has discouraged.