SUMMIT OF SURPRISES
[From March 15, 2018]
Prior to last week, I was beginning to let my guard down on the Administration. Over a year into the journey, the Trump foreign policy was beginning to take shape as something nearing indifferent neglect. Not benign neglect, but simply not something that the President cared about and not something that a barely staffed State Department, hobbled by a chronically "about to be sacked" Secretary, was able or willing to do anything about. The President's few forays abroad had been set-up by his media antagonists as all-but-certain traps waiting to be sprung, or at the very least opportunists for him to embarrass himself, and by extension, the entire country.
But those pitfalls failed to materialize. Also failing to materialize were the more disheartening promises/threats made by Candidate Trump. NATO was not disbanded, and apart from a few (not entirely unfair) words about members fulfilling their already agreed to obligations, the Alliance -- still facing an confrontational Putin and Europeans distracted by Brexit and domestic problems -- seems as strong as it was under Obama. TPP was abandoned, and while unfortunate, it seems like that would have happened regardless of who won in 2016 -- and at least Trump was consistent on opposing the agreement.
On the other hand, some good things did happen during Trump's first year. The rollback of ISIS continued, leaving the Caliphate all but eliminated. While I will acknowledge that this rollback was started under Obama, I will also point out that ISIS was entirely the fault of Obama's Iraq policy, and that the group he derided as the "JV" squad achieved greater success than any other terrorist organization in recent memory. (This paragraph has just served to remind me how important it is for my therapy to write a article on Obama's World.) The (one) foreign policy Trump campaign promise that I was wholeheartedly behind was his promise to scrap the JCPOA, aka the Iran Deal. While the President didn't outright renege on this promise, much like his pledge to dismantle Obamacare he only went part of the way. But whereas the continued existence of the Affordable Care Act can fairly be attributed to (failure of) the legislative process, Trump had more control over the fate of deal with the Islamic Republic, and he still seems unwilling to (de)commit. Speaking of the fate of the Mullahs, Trump did come up wanting, much like his predecessor, when it came to supporting protesters in Tehran.
There was, in fact, only one international issue over the past year that President trump seemed to be earnestly engaged in: North Korea. This engagement, to be sure, was not without reason. Over the past year it has been made all too clear that the Hermit Kingdom's quest for a nuclear device and means to deliver it had been, effectively, achieved. The fault for this lies at the feet of each of the past three administrations. But, because the fates have cruel sense of humor, the reality of dealing with it lies with this Administration. Considering that the efforts of Clinton, Bush and Obama, all of which were variations on the theme of "contain and pray the regime collapses" can't be colored as anything but failure, at least Trump can be credited for trying something new: Stooping to their level.
The ongoing tweet storm that was unleashed on Kim Jong-un (what is his honorific? His dad and Grandpa were respectively the Dear and Great Leaders, but no word on the third generation despot.) and the DPRK in 2017 had, like Kirk's solution to the Kobayashi Maru, the virtue of never having been tried. The Conventional Wisdom proffered by the Holy Trinity of the Media, the Left and the foreign policy Establishment was that this was a dangerous and needless provocation of the unstable Kim. Trump's impulsive attacks, it was stated with the utmost confidence, would lead directly to the death of thousands, if not millions, in South Korea, Japan and even the United States itself.
The definitive book on Trump's compulsion to attack, belittle and insult his opponents has yet to be written. As astonishing, appalling and seemingly infantile these attacks and insulting nicknames ("Low Energy Jeb," "Little Marco, " "Crooked Hillary." You know the list.) are, the 2015-2016 primaries and general election are testament to their seeming effectiveness. (I am reminded of Seinfeld episode with the Bad-Breaker Upper who tells Elaine that she has a big head. Initially unfazed, by the third act she's stabbing people with forks. All I'm saying is to keep the cutlery away from "Pocahontas" going forward.) One day we may learn if these are simply the unintended result of a man who never really grew beyond the playgrounds of Queens or are Machiavellian masterstrokes. Whatever the psychological imperative behind these tweets is, the so-called Little Rocket Man seems to have been spooked.
The announcement late last week that Kim and Trump will meet in May is one of those few "wow" moments of diplomacy that seem like bolts from the blue. It's not quite Nixon going to China, but if it takes place it will rank among the most unlikely diplomatic events of the post-WWII world. The announcement leads to myriad questions, from administrative issues like when and where to bigger matters such as why and what. Beyond that is the simple matter that it might get cancelled in its entirety, either from its own weight or due to outside influences: the South, China, or the actions of the DPRK itself.